Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletin

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2008 Mar 18 2354 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html


Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
10 - 16 March 2008

Solar activity was very low. The disk was spotless during most of the period. however, Region 985 (S10, L = 201, class/area Bxo/090 on 10 March) emerged near the west limb on 10 March. It produced three subflares on 11 March, the largest of which was a B5/Sf at 11/0557 UTC. Region 985 departed the west limb on 11 March.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels throughout the period.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels throughout the period. However, occasional minor to severe storm periods were observed at high latitudes. ACE solar wind measurements indicated a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream was in progress during the entire period. A peak velocity of 735 km/sec was detected at 11/0457 UTC. Velocities slowly decreased during the rest of the period with a low of 535 km/sec detected on 16 March. IMF Bz varied + 5 nT throughout the period. IMF Bt reached a peak of 6 nT at 10/0655 UTC.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
19 March - 14 April 2008

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels during most of the period. However, the flux may drop to normal levels on 26 March and 05 April.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels during 19 - 24 March. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels on 25 March as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream begins to disturb the field. A further increase to minor storm levels is expected during 26 - 28 March as coronal hole effects persist.

Activity is expected to decrease to unsettled levels on 29 March as the high-speed stream subsides. Quiet conditions are expected during 30 March - 03 April. Another recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream is forecast to disturb the field during 04 - 09 April with active conditions expected during most of the period. However, minor storm levels are expected on 05 April. Activity is expected to decrease to unsettled levels during 10 - 11 April as the high-speed stream subsides. Quiet conditions are forecast for the rest of the period.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2008 Mar 18 2354 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2008 Mar 18#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2008 Mar 19 70 5 2
2008 Mar 20 70 5 2
2008 Mar 21 70 5 2
2008 Mar 22 70 5 2
2008 Mar 23 70 5 2
2008 Mar 24 70 5 2
2008 Mar 25 70 10 3
2008 Mar 26 70 20 5
2008 Mar 27 70 25 5
2008 Mar 28 70 20 5
2008 Mar 29 70 8 3
2008 Mar 30 70 5 2
2008 Mar 31 70 5 2
2008 Apr 01 70 5 2
2008 Apr 02 70 5 2
2008 Apr 03 70 5 2
2008 Apr 04 70 15 4
2008 Apr 05 70 25 5
2008 Apr 06 70 15 4
2008 Apr 07 70 10 3
2008 Apr 08 70 15 4
2008 Apr 09 70 15 4
2008 Apr 10 70 12 3
2008 Apr 11 70 10 3
2008 Apr 12 70 5 2
2008 Apr 13 70 5 2
2008 Apr 14 70 5 2
(NOAA)