Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2008 Jul 29 2054 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html


# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
21 - 27 July 2008

Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk was spotless.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels during 21 July and 23 - 27 July.

Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels on 21 July. Activity increased to active levels during 22 - 24 July with minor to major storm periods observed at high latitudes. Activity
decreased to mostly quiet levels during 25 - 26 July. Activity increased to active levels on 27 July. ACE solar wind data indicated a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) began near the start of the period, in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (HSS). The CIR was associated with increased velocities and proton densities (peak 13 p/cc at 21/1159 UTC), increased IMF Bt (peak 11 nT at 22/1031 UTC); as well as intermittent periods of southward IMF Bz (minimum -10 nT at 22/1219 UTC). The HSS commenced late on 22 July and eventually reached a maximum velocity of 678 km/sec at 23/2039 UTC. Velocities gradually decreased during 24 - 27 July. Another period of increased velocities (peak 454 km/sec at 27/2357 UTC) began late on 27 July, possibly associated with a northward extension of the southern polar crown coronal hole wind stream.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
30 July - 25 August 2008

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels during 09 - 23 August.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels during 30 July - 06 August. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels on 07 August. A further increase to active levels is expected during 08 - 09 August with minor storm levels at high latitudes due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to decrease to unsettled levels during 10 - 13 August as coronal hole effects subside. Quiet conditions are expected during 14 - 17 August. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during 18 - 19 August due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to decrease to unsettled levels on 20 August as the high-speed stream subsides. Quiet conditions are expected during 21

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2008 Jul 29 2054 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2008 Jul 29
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2008 Jul 30 66 5 2
2008 Jul 31 66 5 2
2008 Aug 01 66 8 3
2008 Aug 02 66 5 2
2008 Aug 03 66 5 2
2008 Aug 04 66 5 2
2008 Aug 05 66 5 2
2008 Aug 06 66 5 2
2008 Aug 07 66 10 3
2008 Aug 08 66 20 5
2008 Aug 09 66 15 4
2008 Aug 10 66 10 3
2008 Aug 11 66 10 3
2008 Aug 12 66 10 3
2008 Aug 13 66 8 3
2008 Aug 14 66 5 2
2008 Aug 15 66 5 2
2008 Aug 16 66 5 2
2008 Aug 17 66 5 2
2008 Aug 18 66 10 3
2008 Aug 19 66 15 4
2008 Aug 20 66 8 3
2008 Aug 21 66 5 2
2008 Aug 22 66 5 2
2008 Aug 23 66 5 2
2008 Aug 24 66 5 2
2008 Aug 25 66 5 2
(Source: NOAA)