Monday, December 14, 2015

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Dec 14 0121 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 - 13 December 2015

Solar activity was at low levels and only C-class flare activity was observed throughout the period, the largest of which was a C7 flare at 12/1346 UTC from Region 2470 (N13, L=087, class/area=Dkc/270 on 13 Dec). No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed this period. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels every day of the summary period with a peak flux of 10,700 pfu observed at 09/1455 UTC. 

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to active levels on 07-08 Dec due to waning coronal hole high speed stream effects prior to the summary period. Unsettled to active field conditions were observed
on 10-11 Dec, with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels observed between 10/0300-0600 UTC, due to the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 December - 09 January 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels throughout the outlook period with only C-class flare activity expected. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 14-20, 29-31 Dec and 03-09 Jan. Low to moderate electron flux levels are expected throughout the
remainder of the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 16 Dec and 06 Jan due to the influence of recurrent coronal hole high speed streams. Active field conditions are likely
on 15, 17-18, 27-28 Dec and 01, 03-04, 07-08 Dec due to coronal hole high speed stream effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the remainder of the period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Dec 14 0121 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2015-12-14
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2015 Dec 14     125           8          3
2015 Dec 15     130          18          4
2015 Dec 16     130          25          5
2015 Dec 17     130          18          4
2015 Dec 18     125          12          4
2015 Dec 19     125           8          3
2015 Dec 20     125           5          2
2015 Dec 21     120           5          2
2015 Dec 22     115           5          2
2015 Dec 23     115           5          2
2015 Dec 24     115           5          2
2015 Dec 25     110           5          2
2015 Dec 26     105           5          2
2015 Dec 27      98          18          4
2015 Dec 28      95          15          4
2015 Dec 29      95          10          3
2015 Dec 30      98           5          2
2015 Dec 31      98           5          2
2016 Jan 01     100          15          4
2016 Jan 02     100          20          5
2016 Jan 03     105          18          4
2016 Jan 04     110          10          4
2016 Jan 05     110           8          3
2016 Jan 06     110          20          5
2016 Jan 07     115          18          4
2016 Jan 08     115          12          4
2016 Jan 09     115          10          3
(NOAA)