Monday, December 11, 2017

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Dec 11 0147 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 - 10 December 2017 Solar activity was at very low levels. Regions 2690 (N07, L=332, class/area Bxo/010 on 06 Dec) and 2691 (S03, L=221, class/area
Axx/010 on 10 dec) were both relatively quiet and stable throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 04-05 Dec and increased to high levels on 06-10
Dec following CH HSS influence.  Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels on 04-06
Dec with G1 (Minor) storm conditions observed on 05 Dec due to influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 07 Dec as CH HSS effects waned. Quiet
conditions prevailed for the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 December - 06 January 2018
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 11 Dec, 13-17 Dec, 19-21 Dec and 02-06 Jan following recurrent CH HSS events. Normal to moderate levels are expected at all other times during the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 11-13 Dec, decreasing to quiet to unsettled levels on 14 Dec due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet conditions are
expected on 15-16 Dec. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 17-21 Dec, with G1 (Minor) storm levels on 18 Dec due to recurrent positive polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet conditions are
anticipated from 22-26 Dec, followed by unsettled to active levels on 27-28 Dec due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. A return to quiet conditions is expected on 29-30 Dec. Predominately unsettled to active conditions are expected on 31 Dec-03 Jan, with G1 (Minor) levels likely on 01 Jan, due to effects from a recurrent positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Dec 11 0147 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2017-12-11
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2017 Dec 11      72          14          4
2017 Dec 12      72          16          4
2017 Dec 13      74          14          4
2017 Dec 14      74           8          3
2017 Dec 15      74           5          2
2017 Dec 16      74           5          2
2017 Dec 17      74           8          3
2017 Dec 18      74          25          5
2017 Dec 19      74          10          3
2017 Dec 20      74           8          3
2017 Dec 21      74           8          3
2017 Dec 22      74           5          2
2017 Dec 23      74           5          2
2017 Dec 24      72           5          2
2017 Dec 25      72           5          2
2017 Dec 26      72           5          2
2017 Dec 27      70          12          4
2017 Dec 28      70           8          3
2017 Dec 29      70           5          2
2017 Dec 30      70           5          2
2017 Dec 31      70          10          3
2018 Jan 01      70          26          5
2018 Jan 02      70          14          4
2018 Jan 03      70          10          3
2018 Jan 04      70           5          2
2018 Jan 05      70           5          2
2018 Jan 06      72           5          2
(NOAA)